Vice-President Suica's keynote speech at Conference on demography under BE Presidency, organized by the European Commission and Egmont Institute

Ladies and Gentlemen, esteemed colleagues, distinguished guests,

As we are approaching the end of this Commission’s mandate, and my mandate as the first Vice President in charge of demography, I will reflect on the demographic challenges we are all facing. But before doing so, I would like to take a few moments to look back at the previous years during which we were developing this portfolio.

Under the leadership of President Von Der Leyen, ‘demography’ was singled out as a standalone subject within the European Commission for the first time. This bold step was not just a matter of administrative reshuffling but a profound commitment to addressing one of the most pressing challenges facing our continent today, in a holistic manner.

I cannot say that my journey so far was an easy one, especially because there are so many different aspects to demography. If we only look at the multifaceted agenda of today’s conference, we see how complex it is. It touches on employment, skills, education, on health, pensions, families. But there is also the territorial dimension to it and migration plays an important role as well.

As we chart our course forward, it's clear that the work we've begun under this mandate is just the beginning. The demographic challenges require sustained efforts and collaboration across all levels of government and society, and across policies. 

Within the Commission there is some alignment to be done if we want to bring this portfolio to the next level in a comprehensive manner. We need structures to address demography in all its aspects. And we need natural counterparts in the Council and the European Parliament, because currently there is not a designated configuration we can partner with. There are no Ministers for Demography, there is no Parliamentary Committee on Demography. True, a lot of powerful thinking is done by national research councils and think tanks, but who is taking their recommendations further? 

Let’s not forget. Europe is on the brink of a demographic revolution. The age pyramid is radically changing shape, with a growing proportion of our population over 65, and a significant number over 80. Children born today are likely to live to up to 100 years. At the same time our birth rates are in decline and our work force is shrinking. This demands a profound rethinking of our institutional, political, economic, and cultural frameworks, since they are designed for shorter lifespans.

In our fast-moving societies, demographic change – just like previously the climate change - remains often unnoticed by most citizens, because it is slow – so the change is impossible to see in our day-to-day observations, not even when comparing one year to the next. It is sometimes compared to tectonic changes that fundamentally alter our geographies without the change being recognized. But even if it is slow, the change, is extremely impactful and very difficult or impossible to reverse.

If we do not consider the downward demographic trends and mitigate where possible, we may end up sleepwalking into dark scenarios. Looming threats to our competitiveness, pressure on our budgets, the strain on public services and pensions, and the potential for jobs across every sector of the economy to go unfilled – serve as a stark reminder of the passive approach we should avoid. So, let’s not consider demography as “something that overcomes us”, let’s pre-empt it with the right policies.

Under my mandate, we have steadfastly refused to let Europe drift into a precarious future. Through the Demography Toolbox communication of October last year, we initiated the first holistic approach to demography across the Commission, transcending traditional siloes and fostering a unified, comprehensive strategy. This pioneering effort represents a significant achievement, and hopefully marks a new era in how the EU perceives and addresses demographic challenges.

Now, allow me to say a few words about the three main topics of today’s conference, which mirror the approach we have taken in our Toolbox:

1. Human Capital

Our discussions on human capital have underscored the urgent need to rethink the future of our workforce. I already mentioned the dual challenge we are facing: an aging population and a shrinking workforce. To counter these trends, we've delved into innovative strategies to boost labour supply – from rethinking education and training systems to ensure they're aligned with the digital age, to implementing policies that encourage greater participation among women and older citizens in the workforce. Our focus has been on leveraging the untapped potential within our population, enhancing productivity through upskilling and reskilling, and fostering an environment where work-life balance is not just a concept but a practice. 

At the same time, we're exploring how to empower this new older generation, to give them a stronger sense of purpose and to capitalise on their knowledge and experience, the so called "longevity dividend". This narrative breaks from the negative discourse typically associated with ageing.

2. Territorial Dimension

The territorial dimension of demographic change has revealed the diverse impacts across our regions. On the one hand we see urban centres experiencing population growth, while on the other hand rural areas are facing decline. 
I think that many of you recognise the pattern in some rural parts, in which the younger persons leave, and the older generation stays behind. First the post office closes, then the school, then the baker shop, then the general practitioner retires, etc…  On the other hand, we see that affordable and accessible housing in cities becomes a pan-European problem, even for couples of which both partners have a median salary.

I elaborate a bit more on this dimension because it is very close to my heart, and it is there that the two parts of my portfolio – demography AND democracy – meet. Depopulation leaves people with the sentiment that they are left behind, creating a ‘geography of discontent’, which is also expressed in negative voting patterns. The same goes for the teachers, nurses, or the police officers who cannot afford a house in the city where they work.

Our approach has been to tailor strategies that address these unique challenges. We've emphasized the importance of smart, sustainable investment in infrastructure, digital connectivity, and social services to revitalize affected areas. Our goal is to ensure that no region is left behind, fostering social and territorial cohesion through targeted initiatives that empower local and regional authorities.

3. Global Dimension

In addressing the global dimension of demography, we've looked beyond the borders of the EU to understand our position in a rapidly changing world. The question of migration, often seen through the lens of ‘challenge’, is also an opportunity for renewal and growth. Our strategy has been to approach migration with a focus on integration and inclusion, ensuring that migrants can contribute positively to our economies and societies. And I have seen studies concluding that legal migration, selective and circular, can contribute to shortages in all segments of the labour market, while mitigating the risks of brain drain in regions or countries of origin.

As you have heard, we do not propose a ‘one-size-fits-all’ approach, but we encourage policy makers at all layers of governance to take action according to their national, regional, or local demographic profile.

Ladies and gentlemen, as I stand before you today, I am filled with hope. Through the collective efforts of everyone in this room and beyond, we have the power to shape a future where demographic change is not a looming threat but an opportunity for growth, innovation, and inclusivity. 

Thank you for your commitment to this vital cause, and I look forward to the insights and discussions that will emerge from this conference.